Can’t spell iPhone without India: Country set to become tech giant’s third-biggest market by 2026

New Delhi: India is expected to become Apple’s third-biggest market -after the US and China-by 2026, with volumes sold locally surging by up to a fifth next year to as many as 15 million units, as the iPhone maker pivots toward other emerging economies to offset the impact of an alarming Chinese market-share shrinkage triggered by Huawei’s revival.India is currently the fifth-largest market for the US tech giant, while Japan is its third-largest country and the UK the fourth.
India’s climb up the revenue and sales leaderboards for Apple, experts believe, is being driven by increasing availability of financing options, steep discounts during festivals, and an evident consumer shift in favour of premium products that usually accompanies higher disposable incomes. Meanwhile, Apple lost nearly 10 percentage points by way of market share in China in the 9 months to September.
As of the third quarter of 2024, Apple had already shipped 8.5 million units to India, research firm Canalys said, surpassing the volumes for the entire 2023.

Apple to be among India’s Top 5 Brands

Apple is expected to add 4 million units in the December quarter, driven by strong demand for its latest iPhones.
“India is likely to become the third-largest market for Apple in terms of shipments by 2026,” said Counterpoint’s Research Market Outlook.
Financing will play a big role in boosting sales of Apple gadgets, especially for those climbing the consumption ladder. “Premiumisation in India, with readily available financing, boosts affordability for premium smartphones, benefiting Apple’s exclusive focus on this segment,” said Shubham Singh, research analyst, Counterpoint Research.
China Woes
Apple has been seeing a steady decline in market share in China where local players have been gaining ground, even in the premium segment, where Apple has been dominant so far, after the resurgence of Huawei. It’s market share in China was 24% in the December quarter of 2023, which fell to 15% in Q1 24, and has remained stagnant at 14% as of Q3 2024, when it shipped 10 million units, Canalys said.

By contrast, Apple’s market share in India has been steadily growing. Canalys estimates Apple to clock 12-12.5 million units in 2024, from 8.5 million in 2023, after a stellar festive season. Counterpoint Research expects iPhones to cross 11 million units, while IDC expects it to cross 12 million.

To be sure, despite higher unit sales, increasing localisation and reduction of import duties might cause a slight shrinkage in absolute revenue growth for Apple.